A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
